Iraq and Kerry

A lot of ink (real and virtual) has been wasted, it seems to me, on why Kerry isn't saying more about Iraq (even though he speaks out about one or another Iraq related scandal almost daily). Josh Marshall over at the must-read talkingpointsmemo.com picks up on this and offers up his reasons for why he thinks Kerry is seeking to avoid putting Iraq front and center. Joe Klein also has a piece in Time this week entitled, Iraq Is Not Just Bush's Problem, pointing out that Kerry seems to be waiting to push the issue until the fall - although one can't quite tell whether Klein thinks this is good or bad.

While Marshall's analysis presents some good points I think the main reasons for not making Iraq the center of the Kerry campaign are obvious.

1) The events on the ground change almost daily and could still very likely get better by election day. This is MOST important for us to remember but I doubt most liberal commentators even think this possible. However, I am sure the Kerry campaign - being a well managed and cautious bunch - is distinctly aware that Iraq could just as easily look less chaotic by November. With it looking so bad now, it certainly wouldn't take much.

2) Kerry is determined, come what may, to run the race he wants to run and that means talking about the economy, healthcare and education during the early months while the public is still just barely paying attention. He is unwilling to be known chiefly as a Bush basher and hopes to define his own agenda squarely in the minds of American voters before the Democratic Convention - which will provide him with an opportunity to bring his agenda to a dramatic climax just three months before election day. While Iraq is going to have to be an important part of his agenda -especially if he wins- fixing George Bush's mess is not WHY Kerry is running.

3) To continually talk down the American effort in Iraq would contribute to a sense of hopelessness and that is distinctly un-American. Pointing out, from time to time, Bush errors in dealing with the post-war situation is far more sensible, and follows closely the pattern of most Americans thinking on this issue. Kerry is clearly concerned with sounding defeatist and his concern is well placed. His line about "If George Bush takes these steps in Iraq I will support him" is aimed directly at this concern and is precisely one of the many reason why Kerry is so much more adept politically then Howard Dean - who would have used every bombing in Iraq as political fodder to attack the President.

The result of all this is Kerry sounds exactly right about Iraq. It's taken sometime, but he is everyday growing more acceptable to American voters and come November should win handedly.