Campaign summary

We're back...been busy busy busy making $$$. Lots to talk about:

1)New polls showing Kerry having erased his deficit from last month. The race is now truly tied, with Kerry ahead my a small margin in some polls.

The main thing holding Kerry back - he's not as well known. However, with all that's been going on overseas, the need to fundraise and put a GE campaign together and some much needed R&R after a grueling primary campaign that saw Kerry come back from the political dead, not to mention $70 million worth of negative ads run against him, Kerry is doing exceptionally well. In fact (this is something pundits all forget) better than anyone expected the Democrat to do just a few short months ago.

2) Taguba report fallout, Rummy and Bush's speech last night on Iraq:

Democrats' position on Rummy is clear - he should resign. The more the public learns about Abu Ghraib and the more pictures and videos that leak out, the more the public will come to believe Democrats are right about the need for change at the top. Bush's entire administration is facing renewed scrutiny over letters, memos and legal documents that may have lead to some of the horrific scenes coming out of Iraq's most notorious jail. Yet, mysteriously, nothing seems to have been done except for Rummy's recent proclamation that no US servicemen can use digital cameras period.

The Bush Team always seems to hope that by rolling out the President and having him make well publicized remarks about Iraq will somehow magically change the situation. It's important for the media to remember, unless substantial changes are made on the ground, of which few seem to be getting made, progress in Iraq will look a lot like it has looked for the last year - periods of relative calm followed by a new flare-up or scandal with the news of troop deaths nearly everyday. May is already turning out to be one of the deadliest months in Iraq for US servicemen and women.

BOTH the prison scandal and Bush's refusal to change course in Iraq are actively driving down his poll numbers. ToughEnough's best guess is if Bush's approval slips below 40% and things in Iraq continue to worsen he may be forced to ask Rumsfeld to resign and demand new military leadership in Iraq (Army Gen. Sanchez is already being replaced). We've been thinking that if Bush's reelection effort continues to sink, some big (and we mean BIG) changes in Bush's political team could take place.

In other words, we wouldn't be surprised if, after the convention, with Bush down 15 points and his approval rating in the toilet Rove or Mehlman are forced to resign and (a la Bush Snr. in '92) Bush is forced to reorder his campaign management. This may be too extreme. More likely - The Hughes/Rove rivalry will worsen as the Bush campaign continues to struggle and Hughes will take charge, marginalizing Rove when she comes on board the campaign full time in August.