- One consequence of this oversight is the now fashionable assumption among Democratic elites, bloggers and web-deprived alike, that any Democrat other than John Kerry could have defeated Bush handily in 2004. I am taking this occasion to dissent from that perspective.
There are any number of simple empirical arguments that may be made in defense of the presidential candidacy of John Kerry. Among them are these: [...]
• According to candidate trait data from the 2004 American national Election Study data, Kerry matched Clinton’s 1992 performance on each attribute measured among Democratic identifiers (cares about people like me, provides strong leadership, knowledgeable). In short, Kerry appealed effectively to the Democratic base.
• Contrary to the conventional wisdom, my multivariate analysis of the 2004 election indicates that a sizeable chunk of Kerry voters voted for him precisely because they admired Kerry’s personal traits, not despite them. Controlling for all other voter predispositions, Kerry’s persona, no matter what the pundits suggest, was a plus – not a minus. [...]
As Kerry himself has pointed out repeatedly, and at times with complete exasperation, it is too early to think about 2008. If we try to race past 2006 without doing the necessary work, the credibility of the 2008 election may well be in jeopardy. But today, for Kerry's steadfast supporters, reading this was sweet. And for those who would reply, "what, all 27 of them??" I would direct them to the supporter groups at Democratic Underground. There you will find that the largest and most active group is the John Kerry group, with over 54,000 posts. For comparison, the next most active group is in support of Wes Clark, with around 7,800 posts. I point this out not because the blogosphere is like the real world, but because so many bloggers and pundits are so eager, once again, to toss Kerry aside.
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