Time Poll: race narrows to 6

New Time Poll
Likely voters-
Bush: 48
Kerry: 42

9/9:
Bush 52
Kerry 42

Among registered voters, the change is even greater:

Bush: 48 (51)
Kerry 44 (43)

The poll also shows that 44% expect Bush to win the debates while 33% expect Kerry to win. So much for Bush getting the benefit of low expectations like he did in 2000.

UPDATE: There's more...

Bush Iraq Credibility Gap:
President Bush now appears to have a credibility gap on his assessment of Iraq's progress since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Only 37% of registered voters say that Bush has been "truthful in describing the situation" in Iraq, while 55% say the "situation is worse than Bush has reported."

Majority Says World More Dangerous after U.S. actions in Iraq:
Echoing a major Kerry theme this week, half of the voters, 51%, now say that U.S. actions in Iraq have made the world more dangerous, while only 39% say the U.S. actions in Iraq have made the world safer. In early September, the TIME Poll had about equal numbers of "safer" (44%) and "more dangerous" (46%).

Support for War Weakens:
The latest wave of terrorist violence in Iraq has also dampened support for the war a bit, with 48% now saying the U.S. was right to go to war, down 5 points from two weeks ago, and 46% saying the U.S. was wrong. In early September 53% said the U.S. was right, 43% said wrong.

Bush has only a slight advantage over Kerry, 46% to 42%, as the candidate "most likely to bring a more successful end to the situation in Iraq."

This shows what we all knew to be true. The violence in Iraq and the ability of the Kerry team to finally center the argument around Bush's stewardship of that troubled country instead of Kerry's voting record has begun to turn the public back towards Kerry. In the process, Kerry has done an excellent job of laying out his own vision, while at the same time explaining his past vote on the resolution in a compelling way, pointing out that it was not a "vote for war" at all and that even the President called it a "a vote for a peaceful solution."

We are in a good position now to turn the race decisively in our favor if Kerry is likable but doesn't shirk from going in for the kill during the debates. I have a lot of confidence in Kerry's debating skills and while I don't want to raise expectations it doesn't matter because since most of the country thinks Bush will kill Kerry in the debates. I think Kerry will surprise them all.