Kerry will win

The best indicator we have right now of how people will vote in November is Bush's job approval ratings - currently shown by Gallup to be at a record low of 46%. Historically, as Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, explained to USA Today:

For an incumbent to be at 46% job approval at this point in an election year has historically always spelled defeat for presidents since 1950.

Add to this, John Zogby, who proclaimed in an article published on his website, that The Election Is Kerry's To Lose. Ridicule him all you want, when it comes to national polling he was by far the most accurate pollster in 2000. He had Gore up by a little less than 1% the day before the election. Gallup had Bush winning by 2%.

Our point with all this is not that polls matter that much six months before an election, but that the Conventional Wisdom (that Kerry is struggling, and Bush is continuing to run strong) is simply not supported by the facts. One would hope the media begins to change it's tune over the next week and places the ball firmly in Bush's court, forcing him to prove how he plans to win inNovemberr will all the shit that's going down -not the least of which are his poll numbers.