Monday, April 12, 2004

Kill, capture or negotiate?

There seems to be some conflicting information as to whether we intend to capture/kill al-Sadr and his militia or negotiate with him. Paul Bremer and the Provisional Authority have continued to maintain that they won't negotiate with al-Sadr and that his only option for ending the violence is to turn himself in to the Iraqi police force (if there are any left to take him). However, today CNN is reporting that some kind of agreement has been reached in Najaf to return control of some police stations in the southern part of the city to coalition control. Juan Cole reports on the Iraqi Islamic Party that is leading negotiations in Fallujah. ToughEnough wonders, who are we actually negotiating with in Fallujah? Who are the Sunni leaders in that city responsible for attacks on our forces and what is their connection with al-Sadr?

My own feeling is that the CPA has realized that if they capture of kill al-Sadr they'll be f**ked and are hoping Iraqi surrogates and members of the governing council can negotiate an end to hostilities. This represents a 180 degree turn in approach and stands in striking contrast to the bluster from generals in Baghdad last week who declared their intention to launch an overwhelming response to the killings in Fallujah and to al-Sadr's defiance. As the LA Times reports:
    The move to stress negotiations over military action marked a significant tactical shift for American officials here, who until the weekend had been vowing to crush the two insurgencies threatening Iraq's stability.
I have a feeling the pictures out of Iraq - of American and civilian casualties - were just too much for the White House and the Bush re-election team. Rove et. al. ordered the military to step down. It simply became politically impossible to continue the siege on Fallujah and other southern cities. We are now headed for a prolonged period in which we will try to negotiate the return to coalition control of cities held by al-Sadr and his militia and eventually al-Sadr's negotiated return to Iran.

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