Thursday, March 13, 2008

Hillary owes Rush,

big time:
    Now, it turns out she won at least one of those delegates because of crossover Republicans. The Cleveland Plain Dealer has exit data on crossover voters in CD10:
    A staggering 16,000-plus Republicans in Cuyahoga County switched parties when they voted in last week's primary.

    That includes 931 in Rocky River, 1,027 in Westlake and 1,142 in Strongsville. More than a third of the Republicans in Solon and Bay Village switched. Pepper Pike had the most dramatic change: just under half of its Republicans became Democrats.

    Subtract 16,000 from Hillary's vote total and she gets 57.4% of the vote in CD10--Dennis Kucinich's district--as opposed to the 62.4% she actually received. Plug that into the Ohio delegate calculator and you'll find Republican crossovers pushed her over the threshold, delivering her a 4-2 victory instead of a 3-3 tie.

    While the Plain Dealer doesn't have data for other districts, it gives evidence of heavy crossover voting statewide. Considering the vote totals in Republican-leaning CD14 (which Hillary also won 4-2) were very similar, it's not a stretch to suspect a comparable pattern caused her win there.

    An estimated 24% of Hillary's support in the Mississippi primary came from Republicans. In light of the evidence, it's probably safe to say Hillary's expectation-defying victory in Ohio benefited from a similar dynamic.

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