Hubris

Democrats make want to pat themselves on the back for causing Bush to "flinch" on his second nomination to the court, but they have little to do with the real reason Bush nominated Harriet Miers. For that, as with all matters too complicated for us to understand alone, we turn to Genius Ronald Brownstein.

Sure, President Bush hates being psychoanalyzed, but let's put him on the couch anyway and try to gauge his reasons for nominating White House Counsel Harriet E. Miers to the Supreme Court.

Among the appointment's critics in both parties, the common assumption is that Bush picked Miers because he believed himself to be operating from a position of weakness.

The theory is that Bush — facing low approval ratings, huge challenges in Iraq and the Gulf Coast, and resistance to legislative priorities like restructuring Social Security — flinched at the prospect of a showdown with Senate Democrats over a known conservative. So he picked a stealth candidate with few public footprints. Even one prominent conservative supporting Miers said, "I don't think it was conscious, but I think he blinked."
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So let's try an alternative explanation: Bush picked Miers because he felt strong, not weak. Remember that Bush, throughout his presidency, has repeatedly demonstrated that he believes leadership is more about following his personal convictions, regardless of outside opinion, than building consensus. When he has the power to implement his ideas, he usually does, no matter how much critics complain.

After his victories in earlier judicial skirmishes, Bush may have calculated that nearly all Senate Republicans (and even many red state Senate Democrats) would feel compelled to support any but the most ideologically aggressive choices available to him (such as Brown). That probably convinced him he could make a selection he knew would please him more than it pleased almost anyone else (including some of his own advisors).

To select Miers, Bush bypassed a long list of prominent federal judges who are known quantities to the conservative movement, but just names on a page to him. Instead, he picked someone who is a known quantity to him, but barely a name on the page to them. He placed so much weight on the factors important to him (personal chemistry and trust) that he ignored the factors important to them (principally a tangible record on constitutional issues).

When the right recoiled at Miers' selection, Bush's aides and defenders argued that conservatives should put their trust not in her, but in him. In effect, they maintained that if Miers was good enough for Bush, she should be good enough for all conservatives.

That smacks less of weakness than of self-confidence so unrestrained it verges on hubris. Louis XIV supposedly declared, "I am the state." Bush with this pick seemed to declare, "I am the conservative movement."