Thursday Bolton

Upshot: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee just voted along party lines, 10-8 to send Bolton's nomination on to the Senate without recommendation. For what this means, over to Steve Clemons.

Explaining What is About to Happen: When a 10-8 Vote is REALLY 9-9

Senator Lugar is not going to allow a vote on John Bolton in the Committee. We will get no 9-9 tie because Lugar won't allow a loss, or stalemate.

What will happen shortly is that Lugar will move that the committee report the nomination to the floor without recommendation. That nomination will pass 10-8, on a party line vote.

According to a source close to the action, "A lot of people misunderstand what a "neutral recommendation" means. It does not mean that the vote was tied. It means literally that a motion is made that the nomination be sent to the floor without recommendation. The Committee could also theoretically report the nomination to the floor with a negative recommendation."

Unfortunately, it appears that Voinovich, although he will vote no on the floor, is not insisting that the committee report out the nomination with a negative recommendation.

According to my source, "If Voinovich were to make THAT motion, it would probably fail, with 9 Republicans voting against, and Dems having to decide whether to send it to the floor with a negative recommendation, or whether to vote against the motion to keep the nomination in committee."

The Committee is ducking here, but that's ok.

This is going to be a great fight -- lots more room to squeeze the issues out and compel the White House to defend a flawed and damaged Bolton nomination.

So, stay tuned -- lots and lots more ahead.

And by the way, victory is preempting the Committee's recommendation to confirm John Bolton.

The tide turned our way today.

Intense. And it's only halftime. If you listened to the meeting you heard some of the dirt on Bolton that is now about to be aired on the Senate floor, plus whatever can be added between today and the next hearing. Voinovich ducked, but before he did he laid out an excellent explanation for why Bolton should not be confirmed. Full transcript here.