Bush agenda hits a bump.

It seems that Bush's whole second term agenda may rise or fall with the success of his not-yet-detailed plan to privatize social security. But his grand scheme hit a number of notable speed bumps this week. (I think it's too early to claim victory as some seem to be doing - if there's one thing we can say about this administration, it is that they know how to get what they want.) The most recent is Max Baucus declaration yesterday that he won't be supporting the Bush plan on social security.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 6 - Senator Max Baucus of Montana, a Democrat whose support was essential to the enactment of President Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and his Medicare legislation in 2003, said on Thursday that he would oppose the president's Social Security plan this year.

Mr. Baucus's position will make it difficult for the White House to obtain the Democratic votes necessary for the measure to get through the Senate.

"I seriously doubt I'm going to be the linchpin this time," Mr. Baucus, the senior Democrat on the Finance Committee, said in an interview.

Atrios has the skinny on what may have been a strategic blunder. It seems to me that the Democratic push back was given some weight when the Washington Post published this article last Tuesday: Social Security Formula Weighed, Bush Plan Likely to Cut Initial Benefits. This is clearly not the ground on which the Republicans would like to fight Social Security. They would prefer to talk about the wonders of private investment. ButI'm curious whether that still has the same luster it did during the 2000 campaign. Afterall, the Dow has been locked in the same 10,000-11,000 point range for all of Bush's first four years and the bull-market 90's are a distant memory. Far more fresh in peoples' minds are the loss of pensions in the wake of the more recent corporate scandals. My sense is it might be hard for Republicans to excite even their own base about the wonders of private investment and that would seem a pre-requisite for the successful passage of any privatization scheme.