- Projections in a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (which are probably more realistic than the very cautious projections of the Social Security Administration) say that the trust fund will run out in 2052. The system won't become "bankrupt" at that point; even after the trust fund is gone, Social Security revenues will cover 81 percent of the promised benefits. Still, there is a long-run financing problem.
But it's a problem of modest size. The report finds that extending the life of the trust fund into the 22nd century, with no change in benefits, would require additional revenues equal to only 0.54 percent of G.D.P. That's less than 3 percent of federal spending - less than we're currently spending in Iraq. And it's only about one-quarter of the revenue lost each year because of President Bush's tax cuts - roughly equal to the fraction of those cuts that goes to people with incomes over $500,000 a year.
Given these numbers, it's not at all hard to come up with fiscal packages that would secure the retirement program, with no major changes, for generations to come.
It's true that the federal government as a whole faces a very large financial shortfall. That shortfall, however, has much more to do with tax cuts - cuts that Mr. Bush nonetheless insists on making permanent - than it does with Social Security.
But since the politics of privatization depend on convincing the public that there is a Social Security crisis, the privatizers have done their best to invent one.
- ...[T]he bottom line from any reasonable standard of analysis is that this president has almost always found a way to achieve his monster legislative objectives, even when the media, the Democrats, and many Republicans are in woe-is-he/perils-of-Pauline mode.
Let's be clear, if Bush fucks with Social Security, we are going to make him pay. Harry Reid (are you all thinking he's as bad-ass as I do?) has already drawn a line in the sand, Democrats will not allow Bush to privatize Social Security. If Big Media doesn't think we can stop Bush on this, let him try and he can kiss his Republican Congress good bye.
However, this is no time for empty threats, it's time to take action. Flood your Congressional reps with mail and phone calls and write letters to the editor. Let them know what you think of Bush's plan and don't allow the media to roll us again with their "It's going to happen no matter what people think" logic.
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