Polls

Washington Post/ABC News shows a one-point Kerry bump. He now trails Bush 51-46. Zogby shows a one-point Kerry bump and he now trails Bush by one point 46-45.
What has struck me is how similar this year's race is to 2000, but in reverse. Al Gore started the fall campaign with his first real lead of the campaign. He was expected to knock Bush out in the debates, but decided to sigh and grandstand instead. According to a post-debate panel on C-Span I referred to last week, Bush's average bounce was around 3 points after the first debate with Al Gore.

The average Kerry bounce this year is about the same when you average all the polls. These post-debate bounces have a habit of resetting the race and it wouldn't be unusual for Kerry's bounce to last a while and edge up if he continues to show strength in the debates.

Of course, one could say that Al Gore still ended up actually winning the 2000 election. But this year, it would be very unlikely for Bush to pull out an upset win over Kerry if Kerry is tied or slightly ahead of Bush come election day. Undecideds always break against the incumbent.