PA is back

One of my little pet theories this election cycle is that Pennsylvania has replaced Missouri as the new bellweather state. It has consistently mirrored the national polling trends, but on a narrower scale, yet the state seems to lean Kerry. Unlike Missouri, where Kerry has rarely held a lead, public polls taken in Pennsylvania throughout this election year have mirrored closely the national horserace numbers.

That's what makes the new Quinnipiac poll from Pennsylvania so encouraging:

Kerry 46, Bush 44

Clearly, Kerry's numbers have picked up nationally in the last week after nearly losing the race at the beginning of September and so Pennsylvania has come back to rest, ever so slightly, in Kerry's favor. Bush is still favored in the national horserace numbers, but it's hard to determine by how much - 5 to 8 points or is it 1 to 4?

There's been some discussion on the blogs that some polling organizations seem to be including a much higher percentage of Republicans in their samples than voted in 2000. It's hard to say, and I'm not an expert. But if my theory is correct, I assume Kerry will win (or lose) by about the same margin as in Pennsylvania.