Registered Voters:
Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 46
PA: Kerry 49, Bush 45
FL: Bush 49, Kerry 44
Likely Voters:
Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 47
PA: Bush 49, Kerry 46
FL: Bush 52, Kerry 43
1) All the beloved Gallup traits are found again in these polls, the volatility, the disparity between LV and RV results and a failure to weight for party ID. However, if the gradual media crescendo of doom and gloom for Kerry were true, it certainly isn't supported by these polls. With the exception of the Florida poll, the results in OH and PA reflect a net gain for Kerry among registered voters and in OH, among likely voters.
2) Recent polls do indicate a slight Bush lead in the state. However, this is tempered somewhat by the Rasmussen Premium numbers from the Florida tracking poll which in fact has Kerry ahead by one point and has consistently shown the race close.
No comments:
Post a Comment