Thursday, September 30, 2004

Gallup: Kerry leads among RV in OH and PA

Bush leads in FL and in all three among likely voters, however.

    Registered Voters:
    Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 46
    PA: Kerry 49, Bush 45
    FL: Bush 49, Kerry 44

    Likely Voters:
    Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 47
    PA: Bush 49, Kerry 46
    FL: Bush 52, Kerry 43
A couple things:
1) All the beloved Gallup traits are found again in these polls, the volatility, the disparity between LV and RV results and a failure to weight for party ID. However, if the gradual media crescendo of doom and gloom for Kerry were true, it certainly isn't supported by these polls. With the exception of the Florida poll, the results in OH and PA reflect a net gain for Kerry among registered voters and in OH, among likely voters.
2) Recent polls do indicate a slight Bush lead in the state. However, this is tempered somewhat by the Rasmussen Premium numbers from the Florida tracking poll which in fact has Kerry ahead by one point and has consistently shown the race close.

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