Electoral College round-up

No less than ABC News’ The Note, tells us these are the 9 toss-up states:

Florida 27
Ohio 20
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 10
Oregon 7
Iowa 7
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
New Hampshire 4
TOTAL 95

Minus these states, Bush has 222 and Kerry 221.

Unfortunately, The Note’s rightwing bias causes them to overlook the fact that all the recent polling done in Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota and Oregon shows Kerry 2-7 points ahead. Screw them, Kerry has 256. Setting aside the fact that they give Bush West Virginia and Colorado, even though recent polling in CO shows a tie and in WV shows Kerry ahead, I’m willing to give Nevada and Wisconsin to Bush, giving him 237.

That leaves Florida and Ohio (surprise, surprise!). The majority of recent public polling has Kerry ahead in both states, yet a recent Gallup poll has Kerry tied in Florida and a recent Columbus Dispatch poll shows Kerry tied in Ohio. Bush needs both to win the presidency, Kerry only needs one.

Who would you rather be?