Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Is something wrong with the Bush strategy?

Bush campaign manager, Ken Mehlman told Newsweek, "For the most part, we are playing on their turf." Perhaps. But what about Bush's turf? New polls out of North Carolina, Virginia and West Virgina show these states are within the margin of error. Add to that the fact that Florida is moving towards Kerry and Ohio may very well have broken for Kerry in the last few days.

Maybe it's nothing, or maybe, just maybe, something is happening. While Bush spends time in New Jersey and Iowa, things seem to be stirring back on the red state side. One of Rove's patent strategies is to act very aggressive in the closing weeks of the campaign. But with the battlegrounds moving for Kerry and the race tied nationally, it's hard to take Rove's faints too seriously. (The morning after Bush's much publicized trip to New Jersey, a new poll shows him 13 points behind Kerry in that state.)

With Bush spending so much time in blue states he may very likely not win, Kerry has had Ohio and Florida largely to himself these last few days. Yes, Bush spoke at an evening fundraiser in Florida last night and held another rally in St. Petersburg today. However, between Sunday and Monday Kerry and Edwards held some 7 large scale rallies in Florida. Edwards spent today traversing Wisconsin and Kerry held a rally in Dayton, OH tonight. For his part, Cheney held a bus tour in the Buckeye state today in which he seemed to indicate that if the country were attacked with nuclear weapons Kerry wouldn't know how to deal with it. Good one, Dick!

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