Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 43, Nader 3

I wouldn't be giving it to you straight if I dismissed polls that show a modest Bush bounce. Zogby's last poll had Kerry up by 7. This new poll was taken September 30-August 2. By contrast, in a Zogby poll taken 8/12-8/14 Kerry lead Bush 50-43.

Coming out of the DNC, polls that had showed Kerry at his worst against Bush also showed the most improvement in Kerry's numbers after his convention. I suspect the same may be true now. An ARG poll, mentioned here yesterday, shows, over the first 3 nights of the convention, only a 1-2 point shift in Bush's direction. ARG had Kerry ahead by 3 points immediately following his convention and now has Kerry up by 1.