It looks like PA is ours...

Kerry continues to enjoy a surge in support in the Keystone state. While Bush enjoyed a small lead in polling towards the end of March and early April, in recent months Kerry seems to have solidified a lead there. In a Republican sponsored survey released on July 20th he lead by 5%, and on July 21st the LA Times reported on their poll which had him ahead by 10%. Now, in the first post-convention poll of the state, Survey USA has Kerry ahead by 12 points! That's an 11 point gain from their last poll in early June. (all polling data here)

Remember, whoever goes 2 for 3 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida wins. PA was ours last time, and looks even stronger for us this time around. Pennsylvania for Bush is like Ohio for Democrats. However, while Bush struggles to stay even with Kerry in Ohio, Pennsylvania is looking easier for us.

This is important because it means Kerry will be free to focus more on Ohio and Florida during the coming fall campaign. While we certainly can't take PA for granted, it does provide some breathing room since electing Kerry would have been nearly impossible without the state in his column.