CNN/Gallup: No Bounce

On CNN Late Edition they are touting a poll that shows Kerry behind 50-47 among likely voters after two days of Gallup polling but ahead 3 points 50-47 among registered voters. Friday's sample apparently had Kerry 5 points ahead, Saturdays showed Bush ahead. Newsweek's Friday sample had Kerry ahead by 10 points and Rasmussen reports must have polled a huge night for Kerry last night because in their three day rolling average he jumped up 2 points and Bush down one. We hope Gallup will do another night of polling and give us a real three-day average Monday morning...

On the McLaughlin Group this morning, McLaughlin agreed with a Newsweek reporter that there won't be any "real" bounce but that Kerry will consistantly poll slightly ahead of Bush at least until the Republican convention.

As frustrating as it may be, we believe this is true. But Bill Clinton has a passage in his book that we think puts this in an interesting light:

The Gulf War kept [George H.W. Bush's] poll numbers high, but underneath there was a lot of discontent. When people decided they weren't going to vote for him on the war issue, I moved ahead.

Since we are still at war, Kerry's strategy to try and meet Bush on defense issues, if not exceed it, seems smart. And it's clear that 9-11 and the country's nostalgia for Bush's leadership at that time has kept his poll numbers higher than they might have been.

However, that nostalgia will not fade easily no matter what Bush does and so it is imperative that Kerry succeed in his quest to meet Bush on the twin issues of terrorism and the Iraq war. Only then can Kerry hope that the other important issues, the economy, healthcare and the environment will succeed with enough swing voters to put him over the top. Increasingly, this election looks to be close, perhaps even closer than 2000.

Ultimately, this thing may be won and lost based on each campaign's field operations and success in getting out the vote - a high stakes Iowa caucus like final few days, when robo-calls, Michael Whouley's "Blue Room" and the Kerry-copter are more important than all the debates, the conventions and television appearances in hopefully winning this election for the Democrats. While we hoped it wouldn't come down to this, it seems like it just might, making planning an election night party a scary thing to do.