FLOHPA vs. The Edwards Strategy

Being the astute poll watchers that we are, we feel compelled to occasionally give our assessment of where things stand in the famous battleground states. With the Democratic convention fast approaching and the possibility that the Kerry-Edwards ticket will prove to be a far larger positive than a negative on our chances in November, it's time to look hard at what states are 'really' in play.

Setting all else aside, most experts would agree, whoever goes two for three in the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (FLOHPA) wins the election...so here they are:

All polling information can be found here...
The Three Most Important Battleground States with accompanying recent poll numbers and commentary.

1. Ohio: ARG: Kerry 49, Bush 43, FOX: Kerry 41, Bush 45

Both polls were released on June 23 and are the most recent. In fact, since March, Kerry has lead in 7 Ohio state polls, while Bush has lead in only 5 and by a much smaller amount on average. Looking at the FOX poll in depth, it seems strangely skewed in favor of Republicans. For example Bush's fav/unfav ratings are quite a bit better than in most other national polls and Kerry's are quite a bit worse. Between the two, ARG and FOX, and considering the state polling history over the last few months, we think it's advantage Kerry.

Note: A *Rasmussen Poll (more on Rasmussen below)taken over the entire month of June shows Bush 46, Kerry 42.

2. Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac: Kerry 44, Bush 43, FOX Kerry 41, Bush 46

Both polls list Nader as an option and both were released on June 23. Matt Dowd said on the Charlie Rose show this week that he thinks PA will be the most competitive, probably because he hopes to force Kerry into fighting tooth and nail to hold on to the state. Yet looking over the state's polling history since March, Kerry has lead in 13 out of 21 state polls and Bush in 7 with 1 being a tie. On average, Kerry has again lead my more points. The only polling groups to show a Bush lead in PA over the last two months are organizations generally considered to favor Republican candidates (ie Rasmussen Reports, FOX News and a private Republican polling firm). It's hard not to see a Kerry advantage in this state as well. Plus, Al Gore carried the state 4 years ago by 4% points.

Note: A *Rassmussen poll released today taken over the entire month of June shows Kerry 48, Bush 43. For more on Rasmussen and their polls see below.

3. Florida: Quinnipiac (with Nader): Kerry 43, Bush 43, ARG (with Nader): Kerry 47, Bush 46.

Florida has received quite a bit of polling recently. The Quinnipiac poll was released on June 27 and the ARG poll on June 23. *Rasmussen released their results for June yesterday and it shows a Kerry lead of 5 and another FOX poll showed an improbable Bush lead of 10 points. Rasmussen's month long sampling of 200 voters a week seems almost two broad a time frame to really get an idea of where voter sentiment is now. This race is a tie...no doubt about it.

*Rasmussen Reports' state polling is taken from a state breakdown of national automated-phone tracking poll results and thus gives a very broad snapshot of current voters sentiment in the state. On specific issues like Iraq and the economy, it provides a more favorable view of Bush than nearly every other major national polling outfit.

In short, currently OH and PA = slight advantage for Kerry; FL is a tie.

The Edwards Strategy
In fiddling around with this handy electoral calculator I realized that if Kerry can use Edwards to help win North Carolina and hold onto Wisconsin, then he wins the Presidency without having to win Florida or Ohio. Of course, he MUST hold on to Pennsylvania, that goes without saying.

It's possible that Kerry and his advisors realize this and that's why they are touting Edwards as representative of a three-prong electoral approach: help with rural voters, bring in independents (read: Wisconsin, where he did well among both groups) and help win North Carolina. It's funky, and a little under the radar, but it just might work. The more conservative approach, and the one Karl Rove surely would have favored had he been running the Kerry campaign (hah!) is to have picked someone like Gephardt in the hopes of carrying Missouri and protecting Ohio and Michigan.

The Kerry campaign clearly bet that the excitement Edwards would generate and has generated was well worth the risk. By the feel of how things are going this week - one Kerry advisor was quoted as saying they couldn't have hoped for a better rollout - it seems to be working. New polls out of North Carolina will be interesting to watch.